Stand-alone drug plan premiums are projected to rise sharply, while deductibles also increase. Comparing plans during enrollment may help members find lower premiums.
People with stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans face a sharp price reset in 2027: average monthly premiums are projected to rise from $34 to $51, a 50% increase. The figures come from a KFF analysis. For members, the practical question is whether their current plan still offers the right fit at its new price—and whether another plan covers their medicines at a lower cost.
Robert Travis Scott of Abingdon, Virginia, got a notice that his AARP-UnitedHealthcare plan’s monthly premium would jump from $39.60 in 2026 to $121.90 in 2027. He compared prices online in late October and found a Humana plan costing $19.30 a month with similar benefits. Scott said he was pleased with the switch and estimated it would save him about $1,000 next year. His experience shows how much premiums can vary between plans, though each member’s medicines and coverage needs affect the comparison.
The Medicare open enrollment period for drug and health plans runs through Dec. 7. Members can use the enrollment period to review available options and compare premiums and benefits. Juliette Cubanski, a vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, said the size of some increases raises the stakes for people with stand-alone coverage who might otherwise keep their current plan without checking alternatives.
Premiums are only one part of next year’s cost
Members should also account for deductibles and the way plans charge for medicines. KFF projects an average 2027 deductible of $643 for stand-alone drug plans, up from $540 in 2026. For drug coverage bundled with Medicare Advantage plans, the projected average deductible rises to $489 from $360.
Most people with drug coverage are also expected to face coinsurance for at least some medicines. With coinsurance, a member pays a percentage of a drug’s cost; a copayment is a set dollar amount. Because the amount due can depend on the medicine’s price, coinsurance may make a member’s costs less predictable. A premium comparison alone therefore won’t show what a plan may cost across the year. Members need to consider the deductible and how their own prescriptions are charged.
The projected increases affect the two main ways Medicare members receive drug coverage differently. Nearly 25 million people are enrolled in stand-alone prescription drug plans, KFF reports. About 31 million get drug coverage through Medicare Advantage, which combines health coverage with a drug benefit in many plans. More than half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage.
For Medicare Advantage members, KFF estimates that the average amount paid for drug coverage as part of the total monthly premium will be $9 in 2027, an increase of less than $2 a month. That figure describes the drug portion of the combined premium; it doesn’t represent every cost a member may face for health care or prescriptions. The projected change is also much smaller than the average increase for stand-alone plan premiums.
Estimates differ, and plan choices matter
KFF’s projection differs from a CMS estimate that the national average premium will increase by $1, from $35 to $36. That estimate used September 2026 enrollment. KFF said CMS did not explain how it calculated the projection and suggested the estimate may account for members moving to lower-cost plans. CMS did not immediately respond to a request for comment on KFF’s findings.
The forecasts may use different assumptions about which plans people will choose. KFF’s figures indicate the effect of staying put can be especially steep: 10.4 million people, or 76% of stand-alone plan members who don’t receive low-income subsidies, would pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they kept their current plan.
That group includes 4.1 million people enrolled in plans with no monthly premium. KFF found that no zero-premium stand-alone plans will be available in 2027, so those members would begin paying a monthly premium if they remain in the same plan. A zero premium also doesn’t mean drug coverage has no other costs: deductibles and coinsurance can still apply.
Why stand-alone premiums may be changing
KFF points to the early end of a three-year pilot that helped hold down stand-alone plan premiums. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ended the program in July after providing subsidies to stand-alone plans in 2025 and 2026. KFF said ending the support after two years could contribute to higher premiums in 2027. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz described the program as a bailout for the insurance industry.
The premium and cost-sharing figures are averages, so they won’t describe every plan or member’s bill. The comparison that matters is the one tied to a person’s prescriptions and coverage: monthly premium, deductible, and the share charged for each medicine. With enrollment open through Dec. 7 and many current plans set to cost more, reviewing those details gives members a clearer view of what their coverage may cost next year.
